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Commentaries / ICEJ Reports / Israel in Crisis

Hezbollah—Israel’s Ever-Looming Threat in the North

By David R. Parsons, ICEJ Senior Vice President and Spokesman

The Hamas massacres in southern Israel last October 7 left the entire nation fearing massive rocket barrages and home invasions by crazed, heavily armed terrorists. Israelis knew Hezbollah was capable of even worse atrocities and shuddered at the thought of enduring countless waves of deadly rockets raining down from Lebanon. That threat has not fully materialized yet, as the Iranian-backed Shi’ite terror militia has been content to wage a war of attrition by an intense artillery duel right along Israel’s northern border. But the threat of an all-out war with Hezbollah continues to hang over Israel—and Lebanon as well. 

The recent Israeli targeting of Hezbollah’s senior military commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut, and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran has heightened the chances of a dreaded escalation in the North. But both sides also remember the widespread devastation of the last major conflict between them in 2006, and so far, cooler heads have prevailed. 

Memories run deep of the intense 34-day war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006, known on this side as the Second Lebanon War. For nearly seven weeks, Hezbollah forces fired thousands of Grad rockets, often laced with screws and ball bearings, to inflict greater casualties. Over two million Israelis in northern Israel as far south as Hadera and Tiberias were stuck in bomb shelters during the heat of summer. 

Two iconic images from that conflict capture the moment. In one photo, a Christian couple from north Beirut calmly watched from their balcony as Israel’s precision air strikes pounded Hezbollah’s stronghold in south Beirut (see photo below left). The other picture shows Israelis on the rooftop of a high-rise building in Haifa running for safety as an unguided Hezbollah rocket explodes just meters away (below right). Unlike in Lebanon, there was no safe place for Israelis to remain spectators. Israel has warned ever since that next time, nowhere in Lebanon will be off-limits.

Lebanese Christians watch Israel attack Hezbollah stronghold
Lebanese Christians watch Hezbollah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah speak on television as Israel attacks Hezbollah’s stronghold in south Beirut, 2006 (photo: AP)

The intensity of that war left behind a strong deterrent effect, as Hezbollah largely held back for the next 17 years. And in northern Israel, community bomb shelters were allowed to fall into disrepair, such was the confidence that the enemy would dare not strike again. 

That is until October 7. The next day, Hezbollah began launching rockets and armed drones against Israeli army bases and communities close to the border in a bid to draw IDF manpower and resources away from the Gaza front. That limited approach has held ever since, but it could change at any minute. 

Hezbollah is eager to exact revenge for the loss of its long-time military chief but must also listen to its masters in Iran. Since 2006, the Shi’ite militia has grown into a formidable army of over 50,000 fighters, including an elite Radwan force specially trained to carry out cross-border incursions and home invasions like the Nukhba units of Hamas did on October 7. They also have accumulated a massive arsenal of over 150,000 missiles and rockets, many guided, that can now reach all of Israel. Israeli officials anticipate having to absorb around 4,000 rockets per day over several weeks or longer. Hezbollah has also developed a lethal drone capability. And because Hezbollah is so much closer, security analysts assess it poses a much greater threat to Israel than any direct attacks from Iran. 

Hezbollah rocket hits Israel
A Hezbollah rocket explodes near the Haifa port, sending Israelis scrambling for safety atop a nearby high-rise building, 2006 (photo: AP/Baz Ratner)

Israel’s Longstanding Hezbollah Threat

This ever-looming Hezbollah threat has forced Israel to evacuate some 80,000 citizens from the immediate border area with Lebanon. Israeli leaders realize these evacuees cannot return home until Hezbollah forces are pushed back at least to the Litani River. Most Israelis are now in favor of an IDF armored thrust into Lebanon to accomplish just that (though the chaos and costs of such an incursion could quickly change their minds). Hezbollah also knows its Shi’ite stronghold in south Beirut will be battered even worse than before—which is why most of the Dahieh neighborhood was recently emptied. And Israeli leaders have recently warned that if Hezbollah targets civilians, then the IDF will respond with “disproportionate force,” and all of Lebanon is fair game. 

Given all these risk calculations, it is understandable that both sides have largely sought to contain the current clashes to the border area. The ultimate question is whether the hesitancy will last much longer. Hezbollah has insisted that if a ceasefire is achieved in Gaza, they will hold fire as well. For Israel, the decision is one of whether to tackle the intolerable threat of Hezbollah now or put it off for later. 

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Header photo: IDF soldiers training as part of the newly formed Mountain Brigade in northern Israel (March 2024/IDF, commons.wikimedia.org)