Nuke Dictators: What If Syria and Iraq Had Nuclear Weapons?

Iraq and Syria could have been nuclear powers today if it were not for one nation: Israel.

With Syria and the Islamic State running killing machines displacing millions of civilians and causing a Christian genocide, the Middle Eastern region is already a hellish caldron. But imagine this: Two dictators – the late Saddam Hussein and current Syrian President Bashar al-Assad – with their hands on a nuclear button.

Here’s a look at how Israel prevented nuclear weapons from falling into the hands of dictators. In retrospect, the necessity of Israel’s preemptive actions also headed off a possible widespread nuclear nightmare instigated by Hussein or Assad, who had already used chemical weapons on their own people. Andrei Sakharov, a Soviet nuclear physicist who was once arrested as an outspoken critic of Soviet politics and their arms race, observed, “A country which does not respect the rights of their own citizens does not respect the rights of its neighbors.” Israel’s leaders understood this truth.

On June 7, 1981, Israel undertook a stealth strike into Iraq with eight Israeli F-16s. The mission was called Operation Opera, a.k.a. Operation Babylon. Israel’s renowned intelligence apparatus showed that Iraq – roughly 500 miles away – was constructing the Osirak nuclear reactor. After intense diplomacy failed, the Israelis were left with no option, since Iraq (like neighbor Iran) sought regional dominance. Hussein claimed that Osirak was intended for peaceful purposes, but he was certainly not on Israel’s friend list. Iraq was part of the Arab coalition that attacked Israel during the 1948 War of Independence. Iraq later sent armed forces to fight Israel in the 1967 Six-Day War, then backed Syria when it attacked Israel on Yom Kippur in 1973, the Jews’ holiest day of the year.

Imagine this: Two dictators – the late Saddam Hussein and current Syrian President Bashar al-Assad – with their hands on a nuclear button.

The Israeli Air Force destroyed Osirak in a 1,000-mile round-trip raid far exceeding the official F-16 range, while carrying its heavy payload. Operation Babylon was a masterpiece of skill and courage preceded by months of preparation overrun with daunting complexities. Would you imagine that gratitude was shown toward Israel? It received little to none.

Israel’s Osirak strike took place during Ronald Reagan’s presidency. The relationship between Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin and Reagan was a pattern of ups and downs. After Operation Babylon, the United States was so displeased with Israel’s actions that it readily joined a unanimous United Nations Security Council resolution condemning Israel. The New York Times exemplified the world’s overwhelming reaction: “Israel’s sneak attack … was an act of inexcusable and shortsighted aggression.”

Shortsighted aggression? Maybe it seemed that way to The New York Times and the world, but not to Israel. The Israelis’ Arab enemies’ historic animosity was an ever-present poison. The eventual explosion of terror on September 11, 2001, followed by the U.S. invasion of Iraq under President George W. Bush and the subsequent draw – down by President Barak Obama – set up a 14-year stage plank-by-plank for the rise of the Islamic State.

Switch focus now to Syria on Israel’s northeast border. I’ve stood on an Israeli hilltop border with Syria numerous times in the last few years, listening to briefings punctuated by the sound of mortars dropping inside Syria. Assad took over the Syrian leadership when his father Hafez al-Assad died. Hafez “distinguished” himself in 1982 trying to crush a Sunni Muslim rebellion. The elder Assad and his regime massacred more than 20,000 Syrian civilians. The slaughter was deemed the bloodiest assault in modern times by an Arab ruler against his own people. It was a pivotal, bitter black mark in Syrian history. Bashar has followed in his father’s grim, ghastly footsteps, far surpassing his predecessor’s evil deeds.

In 2007, Syria was not yet facing ISIS nor breaking apart inside from the post-World War I Sykes-Picot Agreement, which delineated the national boundaries of the Middle East after the Ottoman Empire’s defeat. But Syria was building its own nuclear reactor with help from the North Koreans. With Damascus, itself only a scant 60 miles from Israel’s border, Syria’s nuclear project was certainly a precariously close neighborhood threat to Israel.

Based on meticulous Mossad covert operations and intelligence information worthy of a spy novel, ongoing nuclear plant construction was discovered, located in what was called a large, “enigmatic” building in northeastern Syria. The Israeli Air Force launched its secret attack on September 6, 2007. During Operation Orchard, Israeli F-15s and F-16s streaked over the Syrian desert to the unfinished nuclear facility at al-Kibar. The pilots likely activated their bomb protocols almost the minute their engines fired up for takeoff. The target was that close.

In the lead-up to the strike, the Bush Administration held high-level consultations with Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s Israeli government. It was clear that North Koreans and Syrians were closely collaborating with known visits back and forth, along with additional evidence of Syria’s goal to join the nuclear club. Iran was also part of the deadly development plans. In the end, while the U.S. agreed with the evidence, it was concerned about Syrian retaliation. Israel’s assessment differed. The Israelis didn’t expect Syria to react, and Olmert decided to authorize the operation. They were proven right!

World governments didn’t much condemn the Israeli raid this time, perhaps due to Syria’s refusal to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency and Israel’s silence. Or maybe world powers’ attitudes indicated that they somewhat understood preemptive attacks on “clandestine” nuclear operations when the threat lay only miles away. Finally in 2011, after repeated Syrian denials of any covert nuclear construction sites, and its refusal to cooperate with the IAEA, the agency officially asserted that the site was indeed an undeclared nuclear project.

In both the Iraqi and Syrian strikes, the Israeli Air Force carried out the “Begin Doctrine” formulated by Begin in 1981. The doctrine enshrined the concept of preemptive military strikes in Israel’s “determination to prevent confrontation states … from gaining access to nuclear weapons.” The Begin Doctrine applied to hostile countries thought to be developing nuclear programs that actively threatened Israel. To date, only two countries have signed peace agreements with Israel: Egypt and Jordan.

Considering current and future tensions popping up in the Middle East, the Begin Doctrine seems to remain in place to this day. About Iran ­– with its dictator-run surrogates Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas – Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly said that Israel cannot “accept a world in which the ayatollahs have atomic bombs.”

The Iranian ayatollahs mimic Hussein and Bashar al-Assad in their hegemonic goals to dominate the region. Yet the Iranian clerics add another dangerous dimension to the Iranian threats: their theocratic, apocalyptic mindset to usher in the Mahdi, an Islamic messiah who they believe will create a “new world order.” The peril of a nuclear Iran remains, and gains traction due to the Obama Administration’s unwise, ill conceived Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

Again, North Korea comes into play – not only in the escalating tensions with the United States and its history of helping Syria. North Korea and Iran have engaged in decades of cooperation since Iran’s 1979 Islamic revolution. Weapons deals abound. Evidence from various sources – including satellite images – indicate that North Korea is helping Iran with its nuclear program. The testing of intercontinental ballistic missiles by North Korea and Iran has many world leaders on edge. Both nations are violating United Nations Security Council bans that prohibit these tests.

Larry Niksch, a specialist in Asian affairs with the Congressional Research Service of the Library of Congress, said,

North Korea earns about $1.5 billion annually from missile sales to other countries. It appears that much of this comes from missile sales and collaboration with Iran in missile development.

Intercontinental ballistic missiles have one lethal purpose: to deliver a nuclear warhead. Iran and Israel’s capitols, Tehran and Jerusalem, are 968 miles apart. And if North Korea’s ballistic missile testing achieves the 5,500-mile distance between Los Angeles and Pyongyang, dreadful trouble is ahead.

Regardless of the world’s stance on Israel’s actions to prevent two dictators from having nuclear weapons, reasonable nations can breathe a little easier on the nuke question – at least for now.